Despite record highs figured of new cases of COVID-19 and total numbers of patients in the hospital, in addition to the number of deaths from the virus, the pandemic has shown signs of beginning to taper off in the past week.
On Dec. 27, the state reported 2,329 new COVID-19 cases, the lowest since the 2,232 positive tests reported on Nov. 16.
For comparison, during the summertime lull between the first and second wave, state health officials reported as low as less than 300 daily cases in August.
These new lower figures come after the state reported all-time record highs, hitting 6,247 cases on Dec. 12, and repeatedly shooting over 5,000 new cases. Now the numbers remain in the range of 4,000 new cases.
Gov. Phil Murphy, during an interview on News 12 New Jersey on Dec. 23, indicated that New Jersey “might be getting close” to the second weave plateauing.
But he cautioned that “we’ve got another several weeks before we peak,” pointing to official state models that warn of ominous numbers for the direction of the pandemic. In a worst-case scenario, the state would log over 12,000 daily new positive tests on Jan. 14 and at least 9,000 hospitalizations on Jan. 13.
Dramatically scaled up testing capacity now, compared to the first wave in the spring Has resulted in the state inevitably reporting more cases.
Additionally, hospitalizations, critical care patients, ventilator-usage and daily fatalities have all hit months-long record highs.
Hospitalizations hit a seven-month high of 3,873 patients on Dec. 22, but have tapered off since then. On Sunday, the state reported 3,469 total COVID-19 patients.
The transmission rate, or how quickly the virus has spread, dipped just under 1 before Christmas, for the first time in months. A rate of above 1 means that for every person that gets the virus, they spread it to at least one other person.
This plateau was part of what Murphy and state health officials frequently called “flattening the curve” – that is, the curve visualizing when cases and hospitalizations peak is much flatter than if there was no public health intervention.
With the vaccination program underway, and more than 27,000 health care workers in the state already receiving either the Pfizer or Moderna dosage since earlier in December, the governor assured the state would be in a “dramatically different place” in the next four to six months.
“Without question, we know more,” Murphy told News12. “We have capacities. And most importantly, the vaccines have begun to hit New Jersey. It’s not gonna be a light switch, but it’s gonna get better. But I fear it gets worse before it gets better.”
