Into the great wide open

Do we have to deal with the United Van Lines Annual Migration Study. Apparently, we do. And that’s unfortunate.

For readers unfamiliar with the report, the moving company has – for 44 years – tracked where its trucks are coming from and going to. United totals up the trips and produces a set of numbers purporting to show which states had the most incoming moves and which had the most outgoing moves. The company claims to be the “largest household goods mover in the country” thus lending an air of legitimacy to its findings. The study covers the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C., though only jurisdictions in which United handled at least 250 moves.

Why should New Jerseyans care about any of this? Well, for the third consecutive year, this state topped the outmigration list in the report issued Jan. 4. According to United, 70% of the moves in handled here in 2020 were heading out of state. This statistic has often been cited by politicians and advocates making the case that New Jersey is an inhospitable environment – that high costs and a bureaucratic miasma make life here intolerable and drive away residents seeking greener pastures. For example, Senate President Steve Sweeney – who has made repairing the state’s finances a central theme of his career – told NJ Spotlight News last year that the United report “underscores the need for fiscal reform.”

Maybe. But data from one moving company shouldn’t be used to formulate public policy. And to be clear, Sweeney is not doing that. He can – and often does – cite reams of statistics to support his policy preferences. But the report garners wide attention. A Google search of “New Jersey outmigration study” yielded 135 million results. And 70% is a scary number, and its wide distribution can shape perceptions about the state here and elsewhere. Should we be worried?

In a word, no. As Michele Siekerka, the president and CEO of the New Jersey Business and Industry Association – and no shrinking violet when it comes to the cost of doing business here – has said, it’s just one data point. Here’s another: according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, housing prices in New Jersey rose nearly 8% in from the third quarter of 2019 to the same period this year. That puts the state pretty much right at the national average – ranking 23rd – and suggests that demand remains strong.

In addition, executives in the commercial real estate industry report that the market here was hot before the pandemic and remained solid even through the outbreak. Quite simply, New Jersey is where the people are. Companies in a variety of industries need to be here and the characteristics that make the state attractive will not disappear overnight. Idaho, the state with highest inbound United Van Lines shipments at 70%, will never offer the same advantages.

By the same token, other states – including Idaho – are attractive for a variety of aesthetic reasons. Yes, Idaho’s income and property taxes are lower than that national average. New Jersey’s? Well, you know. But the skiing is apparently better there (see, e.g., Sun Valley). Its mountains are higher and spaces more open. In all likelihood, a lot of folk moving there are looking for those things.

In those respects, Idaho is a lot like other western states, several of which – Arizona, South Dakota, Oregon – have in-migration rates of more than 60%, according to United. And Arizona has warmer winters, the Grand Canyon and cool cacti. Those factors could account for what the moving company describes as a multi-year trend of moves toward the west and the south.

None of this means that New Jersey policymakers should ignore the very real problems here. Property taxes are too high. Transportation infrastructure is crumbling from neglect. Energy costs can be prohibitive. But a company that makes money by schlepping Barcaloungers from point A to point B can provide no useful guidance on how to meet those challenges.