National uptick in Christmas spending will be felt in N.J., retail expert says

The National Retail Federation increased its Christmas retail sales growth forecast to 3.8 percent year-over-year from its earlier 2.8 percent prediction — and if history is any indicator, New Jersey retailers will see that same benefit.

The National Retail Federation increased its Christmas retail sales growth forecast to 3.8 percent year-over-year from its earlier 2.8 percent prediction — and if history is any indicator, New Jersey retailers will see that same benefit.

“Historically, we’ve tracked very closely to the national numbers. Being such a densely populated state — a heavily retail state — that make sense, and it’s a very safe assumption that we’ll continue to track along those numbers,” said John Holub, president of the New Jersey Retail Merchants Association.

A 3.8 percent sales increase, which would translate to sales of $469.1 billion nationally, would be above the 10-year average sales increase of 2.6 percent. Last year’s increase was 5.2 percent over the previous year, the national retail industry advocacy association said last week.

The NRF cited two major reasons for increasing their forecast. November’s retail sales rose 4.5 percent year-over-year, the group said, and a recent survey found the average American has completed less of their holiday shopping at this point than in previous years.

Holub said just about any increase in sales would be significant and welcome, as “we’re still scratching and clawing our way out” of the economic downturn.

And from anecdotal evidence, he said, more areas in retail are seeing increases.

“It seems to be a little bit more across the board than we’ve seen in years past,” Holub said. “Electronics always is popular — particular with the tablet computers this year.”