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As GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy, Mounjaro and Ozempic become more popular, the widespread use of these appetite-suppressing medications is having an impact on supermarket spending, a recent study finds.

Within six months of starting the therapy, households with at least one GLP-1 user experienced a 5.5% drop in their grocery bills, according to research from Cornell University and market intelligence firm Numerator.

For the average monthly grocery spend of $630, the decline translates to a $416 annual reduction in purchases, the study said.

Meanwhile, higher-income households – defined as those earning more than $125,000 – saw their spending fall by 8.6% for an annualized decrease of $690, according to the study.

“These reductions are driven by significantly larger decreases in purchases of calorie-dense, processed items, including a 11% decline in savory snacks. In contrast, we observe directional increases in nutrient-dense purchases, such as yogurt and fresh produce,” researchers wrote.

The study found a “modest increase in spending” on those items. It also discovered that grocery basket composition became healthier because shoppers cut back on buying unhealthy products — as opposed to adding better-for-you ones.

According to Cornell, the report looked at transaction data from July 2022 to October 2024. Researchers supplemented that information with survey data Numerator gathered from 150,000 U.S. households that reported having at least one GLP-1 user.

The initial wave of surveying began in October 2023. Additional rounds followed in January/February 2024, April 2024 and July 2024, Cornell said.

For the long haul?

In addition to groceries, households also trimmed spending at food-away-from-home establishments, such as fast-food chains and coffee shops, according to the Cornell study. Overall, breakfast spending declined nearly 4% decline and dinner spending experienced a 6% decrease.

Researchers believe the findings suggest that GLP-1 users are adjusting “both their meal timing and consumption patterns.” They also noted that, “Higher-income households are more likely to reduce breakfast consumption, while lower-income households show greater reductions in dinner spending.”

After analyzing shopping patterns over the 12 months post-GLP-1 adoption, Cornell’s study found “the magnitude of the reduction in food spending decreases” beyond the initial six-month period “but remains negative and statistically significant.”

“This partial reversal may be driven by factors such as compliance challenges, waning drug efficacy, or measurement limitations. Anecdotally, some users report that the appetite-suppressing effects weaken over time, necessitating dosage adjustments to sustain efficacy,” the study said.

“Additionally, while we document a reduction in high-calorie food consumption, the long-term persistence of these changes remains uncertain. The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 medications may lead to temporary shifts in consumption, but we observe some reversion of these effects beyond six months,” according to the study.

“It is unclear whether these changes will persist as the novelty of the medications wears off or if adherence declines over time, especially given that GLP-1 adoption is still in its early stages,” it added.

A ‘significant’ market shift

By 2035, 9% of the U.S. population could be taking anti-obesity drugs, according to an analysis from Morgan Stanley. Since individuals on GLP-1 medication consume an average of 20% fewer calories, the trend will likely have an impact on demand for high-fat and sugary foods.

Novo Nordisk has its U.S. headquarters in Plainsboro. The Danish pharmaceutical company produces weight loss drug Wegovy and diabetes medication Ozempic. Ind.-headquartered Eli Lilly makes Mounjaro, another popular diabetes injectable.

According to recent data, approximately 15 million Americans currently take a GLP-1.

In its study, Cornell noted, “Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly reshape consumer food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as adoption continues to grow.”

Researchers also pointed out the results are “consistent with reports from major retailers like Walmart that indicate substantial declines in purchases of high-calorie, indulgent foods such as chips, candy, and cookies.

“Indeed, the effects of GLP-1 adoption are already being felt across the food industry. Major food corporations, including Kraft Heinz and Campbell’s, have reported sales declines tied to shifting consumer preferences, particularly in processed and snack food categories,” Cornell’s study said.

“The growing focus on health and wellness, driven in part by the popularity of GLP-1 medications, has spurred companies to diversify their offerings … These adjustments underscore a significant shift in market dynamics, as companies adapt to evolving consumer behavior influenced by GLP-1 adoption,” the report went on.

Finding opportunity in New Jersey

Though questions remain over long-term impacts of these drugs on a person’s health – or how long someone will remain on the medication – companies are responding to the changing consumer behavior with new products and services. That includes several entities that call New Jersey home.

Secaucus-based The Vitamin Shoppe announced a telehealth service in May 2024 focused on weight-management solutions. In addition to education and nutrition support, the retailer’s Whole Health Rx program sells monthly subscriptions to GLP-1 drugs.

In June 2024, Nestlé Health Science launched an offering designed to provide information for individuals on a weight management journey, including GLP-1 users. Nestlé also recently introduced a pre-meal drink under its Boost brand. The product helps consumers suppress hunger and create a feeling of being full.

NHS has its global research and development hub in Bridgewater. Vital Pursuit, another new product from the Swiss food and beverage giant, offers a line of single-serve frozen meals. The menus aim to meet the nutritional needs of consumers taking GLP-1 drugs and other individuals focusing on weight management.

Alongside a subscription-based program for GLP-1 drugs, digital health platform Noom has announced a “taper-off guarantee.” According to the company, users can gradually reduce reliance on the medications while maintaining weight loss. Noom relocated its headquarters from New York City to Princeton in September 2024.

Lasting change

During an interview last fall with NJBIZ, Noom CEO Geoff Cook said, “We have a behavior change program that allows a member who wishes to get off the medication to taper down off the med and just rely on habit change. We’ve looked at the data for this – combining behavior change with the medication can lead to long-term weight loss outcomes for the vast majority of people.”

Cook believes the pharmaceutical industry’s goal is to keep people “on the highest dose of the medication” for the rest of their lives. But, he said, two-thirds stop taking the medication within 12 months and 85% no longer use GLP-1s within 24 months.

“There’s this massive gap between the guidance and what people are actually doing,” Cook explained. “And, if there was no habit change that comes along with the use, of course the weight will come back on. That can actually have health consequences because if a lot of weight was lost and a lot of muscle was lost as part of that, it can come back as fat. So, the person could be left worse off than before they started as far as their body composition.”

“Noom has always been about helping folks maintain weight outcomes for the long-term … If you can do the healthy habits at the same time as you begin the medicated weight loss journey, you’re actually reinforcing both behaviors because the medication is helping, but the healthy habits you’re attributing some success to as well. And then that habit has a chance to become entrenched and then potentially help you for the long term,” he said.