Gov. Phil Murphy suggested Thursday that the state could expect to lose $1 billion from the second wave of COVID-19 outbreaks, as it crashes into New Jersey.

Murphy suggested similar amounts during the spring, and at an unrelated remotely-held event on Thursday, said “it’s probably at least that.”

“It’s going to get ugly the next two or three months at a minimum,” he said, previously suggesting that restrictions could bar indoor dining and elective surgeries.

In March, the governor ordered sweeping restrictions in a scramble to halt the rapid spread of the virus, as it began filling up hospitals across North Jersey.

Casinos, malls, sit-down restaurants, non-essential retail, indoor amusement, indoor theaters, many forms of construction, gyms, nail and hair salons all had to shutter their doors, shattering state revenue from the sales, income and corporate business tax.

Record-high unemployment prompted many New Jerseyans to tighten their spending, plummeting retail sales. And with a stay-at-home order, telecommuting order and overall anxiety about leaving the home, travel plummeted.

Taxes on casinos and gasoline sales, as well as fares from NJ Transit, all cratered. That all prompted a $4.3 billion budget hole, which required the state to borrow that amount in order to avoid drastic spending cuts.

And with the governor mulling new potential restrictions on businesses, state treasury officials cautioned Nov. 18 that tax collections could lag this winter.

The state logged 4,320  new cases on Thursday – the fifth day in a row with more than 4,000 new cases, according to Thursday data from the New Jersey Department of Health.

But because of dramatically ramped up testing capacity, state health officials said they’re paying closer attention to the rate of transmission – or how quickly the virus spreads – positivity rate among tests, critical care patients, daily death counts, and patients on ventilators.

There were 34 new deaths and 2,471  total hospitalizations on Thursday, both the highest since May. Two hundred and sixteen COVID-19 patients were on ventilators and 456 were in critical care. The rate of transmission was at 1.46 and the positivity rate among tests was 11.74%.

“While revenues are tracking slightly ahead of September’s projections, the Treasury still expects overall [fiscal year] 2021 collections to remain weak into the winter months followed by a return to collections growth next spring and summer,” reads a Wednesday statement.

Murphy tightened when indoor dining can operate, and gave towns and cities the go-ahead to enact their own restrictions on non-essential businesses.

And the mayors of Newark, Orange, East Orange and Irvington – which have seen the worst outbreaks during the second wave – are all mulling 24-hour restrictions on non-essential businesses, according to a WNBC report.

“They’re up against it and I don’t blame them for trying to turn over every stone,” Murphy said, when asked about that yesterday. “Who could blame them for trying to brainstorm here.