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Rutgers poll shines light on NJ’s 2025 gubernatorial race

Matthew Fazelpoor//November 12, 2024//

The New Jersey state flag waving along with the national flag of the United States of America.

PHOTO: DEPOSIT PHOTOS

The New Jersey state flag waving along with the national flag of the United States of America.

PHOTO: DEPOSIT PHOTOS

Rutgers poll shines light on NJ’s 2025 gubernatorial race

Matthew Fazelpoor//November 12, 2024//

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As the dust settles on the 2024 presidential election, attention and interest are already ratcheting up for next November’s gubernatorial race here in the great Garden State.

A number of candidates from both parties have declared their runs and begun campaigning, while several others are still expected to join the fray.

Released Nov. 12, Rutgers-Eagleton is out with a new poll examining how New Jerseyans feel about the prospective candidates vying to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy.

A topline of the survey finds that while local news and political junkies recognize the declared and potential candidates, they are not household names to the broader New Jersey electorate.

The statewide poll of 1,018 adults took place between Oct. 15-22.

Here’s how the respondents view the candidates:

Republicans
  • State Sen. Jon Bramnick, R-21st District:
    7% favorably, 5% unfavorably, 20% no opinion, 68% don’t know who he is
  • Former Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli:
    20% favorably, 16% unfavorably, 23% no opinion, 41% don’t know who he is
  • New Jersey 101.5 host Bill Spadea:
    9% favorably, 12% unfavorably, 18% no opinion, 60% don’t know who he is
Democrats
  • Newark Mayor Ras Baraka:
    16% favorably, 11% unfavorably, 21% no opinion, 51% don’t know who he is
  • U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-5th District (rumored candidate):
    15% favorably, 8% unfavorably, 21% no opinion, 56% don’t know who he is
  • Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop:
    9% favorably, 9% unfavorably, 22% no opinion, 60% don’t know who he is
  • U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-11th District (rumored candidate):
    19% favorably, 8% unfavorably, 20% no opinion, 53% don’t know who she is
  • NJEA President Sean Spiller:
    7% favorably, 7% unfavorably, 21% no opinion, 65% don’t know who he is
  • Former Senate President Steve Sweeney:
    12% favorably, 19% unfavorably, 25% no opinion, 44% don’t know who he is

 

“Given that next year’s gubernatorial has no incumbent and no clear front-runners yet, large majorities of voters do not know or have opinions on any of the declared or potential candidates,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “On either side of the aisle, no candidate is viewed favorably by more than one in five voters – and at least half of the voters do not take sides on any of the candidates we asked.”

“The field vying to succeed Gov. Murphy is already large and likely to grow even more,” said Kristoffer Shields, director of the Center for the American Governor at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “Name recognition will therefore be crucially important. As the number of candidates rises, so does the risk of getting lost in the sea of names. Candidates will need to act quickly to introduce themselves to voters and separate themselves from the pack as the June primaries will be here before we know it.”

How is Murphy doing?

Speaking of the current governor, the poll also examined his approval and favorability, as well as if the state is headed in the right direction.

According to the findings:

  • 55% approve of the job Murphy is doing, while 36% disapprove
  • Murphy has a 50% favorability versus 34% unfavorably
  • 45% say that the state is “currently going in the right direction”; 46% say it has “gone off on the wrong track”; 9% are unsure

 

“Voters are a bit more mixed about the direction of the state than they were a little less than a year ago,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP. “Last December, voters were more negative than positive – 48% ‘wrong track’ to 43% right direction – about New Jersey. Even though this margin has narrowed, however, there really hasn’t been a significant shift in either direction on outlook since September 2022.”