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As part of NJBIZ’s latest virtual discussion, business leaders in New Jersey weighed in on what to expect in the first 100 days following President Donald Trump‘s return to the White House.

Moderated by NJBIZ Editor Jeff Kanige, the Feb. 4 panel featured:

• Tom Bracken, president and CEO of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce
• Luis De La Hoz, chairman of the board of directors of Statewide Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of New Jersey and first vice president, regional director of community lending at Valley Bank
• Hal English, president and CEO at Princeton Mercer Regional Chamber of Commerce
• Matthew Fazelpoor, government reporter at NJBIZ

During the 90-minute roundtable discussion, panelists spoke about challenges and opportunities under the new administration as well as how policies could affect industries.

“I think a company can be worried but it’s a ‘wait-and-see,’ not a ‘let’s jump out the window.’ It’s too early,” English said. “I don’t know if it’s been a whirlwind or a whirlpool, but this is the fastest two weeks I’ve ever seen in my life – seems like probably about a hundred days. But, we have to wait, let the smoke clear, see what happens and pick up the pieces.”

When it comes to expectations for Trump’s second term, panelists believe this time around is different than when the Republican took office in 2017.

Bracken said, “Well, the first Trump administration, first of all, he was surprised he won. I don’t think he was prepared at all to be president. And so, once he was elected, he had to scramble to get a cabinet. He had to scramble to put together policy. He had to scramble to do a lot of things. So, coming in ill-prepared for that job is not an easy task this time.”

Now, Bracken said, “He was totally prepared. He knew what he wanted to do. He stated in his platform what he wanted to do and he’s doing it. He also had a lot of time to think about who he would have in his administration, which was different than the first time when he had to react very quickly. So, he’s coming in prepared versus unprepared, and I think that’s a huge difference between the two terms.”

Fazelpoor agreed, saying, “He now understands really how the government works and the nuts and bolts of it. And that is why they’re moving at that same fast pace, but there’s a little bit more efficiency to it than the first term.”

Cabinet picks

Ahead of his return to Washington, D.C., Trump began announcing who he wants to fill Cabinet positions and other key roles in his administration. The lineup includes some of his biggest political allies, like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Bracken said, “A president, he or she, should have their Cabinet. They should have their picks, they should have their Cabinet, they have their agenda. Trump was certainly elected, told everybody what he’s going to do and now he’s picked cabinet folks that are planning to do it. However, the experience does count and there are some cabinet picks that are incredibly controversial.

“Look at Kennedy and look at the health care industry. Not just the industry – but all the health care providers in the country – that are very, very nervous about that. But again, a president has a right to his Cabinet pending a congressional review,” he said.

Replay: First 100 Days Panel Discussion

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As of Jan. 3, Republicans have majorities in both houses on Capitol Hill. However, it remains to be seen if Trump will work with lawmakers or act on his own accord.

Bracken said, “Congress has been in turmoil for many years. They haven’t been able to agree even within their own party. And now with the president who is really going against the norm, I think that’s going to exaggerate that problem. So, the effectiveness of government, I think, is going to be even more problematic than it was in the past.”

He went on to say, “I’ve heard many times both with president and with governors that if you’re a businessperson, you can’t bring business norms into government and run the government like a business. I’ve heard that many, many times and there’s obviously history that says that’s true.

“But Trump is trying to do that — he’s trying to run government like a business. And any businessperson is going to surround themselves with their key appointments with people who believe in their philosophy and who really support what they do. And that’s what he’s done with his cabinet picks. I mean, it’s very obvious that he has a group of people that are going to follow his lead just like the CEO of a company and we’ll see if practicing business as the president of the U.S. will work. I have my doubts. I think it will work in some cases, but I don’t think Congress will accept that kind of approach,” Bracken stated.

Fazelpoor noted that Democrats are also “still finding their footing” following the election loss.

“But some of these issues kind of galvanized them. The ICE raids were certainly one of them. Then, this federal funding freeze, which is almost becoming where Trump is daring Congress to step up … he’s going right at the power of the purse, which is the most essential aspect of what Congress does. So, he’s really creating a showdown,” he said. “…. It’ll be interesting to watch that continue to play out. Republicans are kind of going with the flow, whether it be appointments or executive orders. There’s no pushback there. And Democrats, I still think it’s kind of issue by issue on certain issues … I still feel like they’re really trying to find their footing.”

Deportation concerns

Panelists also discussed the impact of the administration’s philosophy on immigration, including the recent U.S. Immigration and Customers Enforcement raid at a seafood distributor in Newark.

Given the stepped-up efforts to detain those here illegally, De La Hoz said people who haven’t completed the immigration process or have aspects pending are growing more and more concerned.

“Many of the Main Street businesses are suffering because they don’t have enough customers or employees. One industry that is … hiring Hispanics is roofing and general contracting. They are suffering a lot because they are trying to complete jobs that they have pending and they didn’t have enough people to attract,” he said.

English added, “It was a problem before this and it’s a problem now … there are a lot of industries where they are ancillary folks and even the legal immigrants are nervous and hiding. Our county clerk issued a press release last week that you now have to get an appointment to get a passport because many, many, many Hispanics have flooded her area. Legals who are eligible for a passport and are smart enough to realize ‘I better carry one around with me so that I don’t get hassled so that I can work and work in peace.’”

Bracken said, “It’s a very big issue … In addition to everything that Luis and Hal have said, what I’m hearing from companies is a lot of their employees are not showing up for work. They’re afraid to come to work because they feel they’d be targeted. So, I think everybody’s been in restaurants and service organizations where they experienced a reduction in staff and slow service prior to this. This problem is exaggerating that. And the owners of those businesses are really kind of at a loss as to what to do because if they do have the same amount of walk-in business and they don’t have enough help. So, they have people not showing up and they’re having difficulty getting people to apply for jobs.”

“It’s this big black cloud hanging over everybody’s head. And I’m not sure how you get rid of it because we all know that that’s definitely the way Trump feels,” said Bracken, adding that he’s worried about the potential for violence in response to the ICE activities

Feeling blue

Compared to red states, panelists believe traditionally Democratic-leaning New Jersey is likely to be negatively affected by the new administration.

Beyond being targeted for immigration, Bracken noted the financial effects on the Garden State.

“One of the biggest potential problems with this is that New Jersey is going into a new budget, very weak financially, and we know they’re going in with a budget structural deficit of anywhere from $2 billion to $4 billion. And if we get any significant cutback in federal funds, it’s going to add to that. We have to constitutionally balance our budget and where that money’s going to come from, I’m not sure … But we are going into this whole process with Trump and his potential cutback of blue states from a very weak position. And that’s frightening,” he said.

“New Jersey gets tens of billions of dollars from the U.S. government, and if that stops, it’s a problem. Even dropping that by 10% or 5%, which is not unreasonable for Trump, that can impact New Jersey negatively. So, this retribution thing goes way beyond the immigrant issue. It can impact every part of New Jersey life,” he said.

Fazelpoor said, “We saw instances of this during the pandemic. We saw it with the SALT cap, which is again now back up for debate as well. I just think any day when Trump is able to fight with a blue state governor or mayor in a blue city, it’s a win for him … I agree with it goes beyond immigration. This will hit into a lot of different issues and is already.”

He continued, “We do get a ton of federal funding here in the state and there is that structural deficit heading into Murphy’s final budget. So, all these things are colliding at once.”

As for taxes, the panelists believed relief is necessary, whether it comes via cuts or reforms. This year, Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will expire, so his administration will need to pass a new package.

Bracken said, “The 2017 tax cut bill was very significant and helpful to businesses in New Jersey, particularly since when COVID hit, they needed that tax relief. And a lot of companies have told me that without the benefit of some of the parts of the 2017 tax bill, they wouldn’t have survived. So, if those tax benefits are not extended, the economy’s not that much better. In fact, in some cases it’s weaker. Those companies are going to be vulnerable. So, I think Trump has hinted that tax bill he wants renewed and he wants it renewed quickly.”

“He’s also talking very strongly about SALT [State and Local Tax deduction] – which is a huge, huge issue for residents of our state – making some modifications to that. I think from a standpoint of taxation, all of us … were optimistic that there would be some more tax relief and more tax incentives to help buoy up our business economy, which nationally is needed and greatly needed in our state,” he explained.

English stressed the need for cuts, saying that New Jersey’s business taxes puts it at a disadvantage when it comes to other states.

“Unfortunately, if he lowers taxes 1%, it’s going to be across the board across the country. So, it’s not really going to help us. We’re still going to be non-competitive, but anything he can do that would help us right that wrong is good,” English said.

De La Hoz said, “We know that a tax reform won’t happen necessarily in four years. The biggest project takes sometimes one, two or more administrations. But we really need something in the short term to alleviate — because it’s not only about us, it’s about our competitors. And companies can relocate right now anywhere … That’s the challenge. What if the biggest employers move or what if they decide to leave the country?”

Tariff trouble

English decried the tariffs being imposed against Mexico and Canada. “They don’t have any choice but to react,” he said. “It’ll throw both those countries in a recession. And they’re going to react and it will drive them to export to other countries – probably China. I don’t see it as a win-win for anybody.”

Bracken said, “This tariff issue, from what I am made to understand, is in retaliation to immigration, people crossing the border and fentanyl … And there’s no linkage at all between tariffs, immigration and fentanyl.”

Learn more

Ahead of the new administration taking office, we spoke with more experts across several industries to explore how President Donald Trump’s second term might affect them. Find out more.

“I think the issue of tariffs is a real slap in the face to the countries that he has imposed these on because he’s accused them of things that are kind of minimal and are very, very negative to the culture of those countries,” he said.

“So, one thing that the country needs is not to try to get more income through tariff increases. We need to increase the number of trade partners the U.S. has. That’s the biggest thing. And the Obama and the Biden administration did not really increase the number of trade partners we had … This really kind of hurts our ability to add more trade partners down the line, which we need desperately,” Bracken said.

De La Hoz explained, “I think that we need to be more strategic because this is us as North America against other countries that probably offer more risks to the U.S. than Mexico and Canada. I understand the other concerns … [and] we need to figure it out other ways to control the southern border, to develop our strategic partners and to start thinking about who our bigger competitor is – China, India or who is around the world.

“And I think that is strategically we need to work together because in Mexico they have the youngest labor force that is less expensive than the one that we have here, and they have industries that complement our economy. They are not necessarily competing with us. They help us to serve our economy. And the same thing with Canada. They have an economy that is very, very narrow to a few industries that we need to in order for us to be successful,” he said.

Infrastructure needs

Panelists also expressed concern that infrastructure projects that received federal funding could be at risk under the new administration. That includes the $16 billion Gateway Program project to build two new rail tunnels under the Hudson River and rehabilitate the existing century-old crossings.

English said, “It’s a $3.8 billion federal grant and I don’t know that we have the money in hand … it’s really scary because that’s such a huge issue for us.”

De La Hoz added, “Infrastructure is always a big component of our economy and sometimes infrastructure is what basically improves our economy because they spend money, they bring a lot of people to work, and those are projects that are needed.”

He also noted New Jersey’s central location on the eastern seaboard, saying that many travelers need to pass through the state. Additionally, the state is set to host the World Cup next year at MetLife Stadium, which tourism officials expect will bring over 1 million visitors to the area — both ticket and non-ticket holders.

Infrastructure is always a big component of our economy and sometimes infrastructure is what basically improves our economy because they spend money, they bring a lot of people to work, and those are projects that are needed.
– Luis De La Hoz, Statewide Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of New Jersey; Valley Bank

In New Jersey, which is home to some of the biggest names in the pharmaceutical industry, panelists said the sector was already affected by President Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act.

“One of the major initiatives there was the controlling of drug prices that really impacted pharma and their ability to do research. And I was told that in the state of New Jersey, that could result in 40,000 job losses in our pharma industry because of the inability to charge the money that they need to charge to do their significant research,” Bracken said.

“I think the pharma industry is kind of reeling from all this. They need some life support. Trump is, I think, also an advocate for drug price controls and that’s really going to be a significant impact to our state because of the fact that we’ve been called the medicine chest of the country,” he said.

Despite growing scrutiny of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, panelists don’t believe New Jersey businesses will abandon such policies altogether.

De La Hoz said, “We see that some companies decide to align with what the president is saying and some companies decide to keep doing what they’re doing without promoting that. But at the end of the day, it’s common sense. If you own a business that has a diverse market or a diverse demographic, you want to continue trying to do business with the demographics that you are doing business with.”

English said, “We have companies that have run away and said, ‘Look, it’s a dirty word now.’ But, we also have companies that recognize if you have a happy workforce that works together and an equal workforce that understands each other, there is more productivity, less turnover, less absenteeism … It’s definitely profitable if you have these programs and we have companies that are going to keep doing it – whether they call it DEI or call it something else.”

It’s definitely profitable if you have these programs and we have companies that are going to keep doing it – whether they call it DEI or call it something else.
– Hal English, Princeton Mercer Regional Chamber of Commerce

Bracken added, “New Jersey is the most diverse state in the country and giving our diverse communities businesses opportunities is going to help the state economically and help the state culturally. So, I think people who believe in that will continue to do what they’re doing and just eliminate the mandates that have been placed on companies … DEI is a mindset and companies that embrace that are much healthier than companies that don’t.”

Home pride?

Panelists don’t believe the fact that Trump has businesses investments here – including golf courses in Colts Neck, Bedminster and Pine Hill – means the state will automatically be in his good graces.

English said, “I think he’s a dollars-and-cents businessman and he is going to be making what he thinks are good business decisions.”

Bracken added, “I think the chances of us being negatively impacted are greater than the chances of us being positively impacted. And I’ll tell you one thing, if they [state officials] don’t renew his liquor licenses at his golf course, all bets are off.”

In June 2024, the New Jersey Attorney General’s Office said it was looking into whether Trump’s felony convictions in New York make him ineligible to hold liquor licenses at his courses here.

The state said it was not renewing licenses associated with two of the properties and granted temporary permits. A final decision was delayed until after Trump was sentenced in his criminal hush money case in New York. Despite Trump’s sentencing earlier this month – in which he was spared any penalty – New Jersey regulators are continuing to hold off on any hearings regarding liquor license renewals.