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The basics:

• July 4 cookout costs up 2.2% year over year, driven by higher meat prices
• Ground beef surges 7.4%; eggs remain 40% higher
• Chicken, watermelon, strawberries offer more budget-friendly options
• Inflation, tariffs, shifting holiday sentiment affect celebration plans

It is going to cost more to fire up the grill this Fourth of July, according to a new report by the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

After tracking prices of classic backyard barbecue staples, analysts determined that people should expect to spend about $130 this year — a 2.2% increase from 2024. But, analysts are confident that hosts will be able to put together a “memorable feast that’s as budget friendly and domestically made as it is festive.”

The cost of cookout staples like watermelon, strawberries and potatoes are either down or steady. However, items like ground beef and eggs will push the average barbecue budget higher for this year’s festivities, the report says.

According to Wells Fargo, the price of ground beef has surged 7.4% due to historically low cattle supply. Therefore, chicken may offer a more economical option this year, since boneless breasts are only up 1% thanks to ample supply and lower feed costs, the report says.

Shopping list

Buns for hamburgers and hot dogs are 1.5% cheaper, but barbecue sauce is 2.3% more, Wells Fargo says.

The cost of side dishes is mixed. Prices for watermelon and strawberries – two very abundant crops in the U.S. – are down 0.6%. The report says this makes for “excellent value for summer snacking.”

Vegetable platters will make a great option for festivities this year, since cauliflower and broccoli each saw upticks of only 1.2%; and baby carrots are up 1.9%. However, the ever-popular cherry tomatoes will cost 3.7% more. Potatoes and ready-made cornbread experienced moderate increases of 1% and 2.4%, respectively.

And egg prices remain 40% higher, due in part to lingering impacts from the bird flu outbreak earlier in the year.

Beverages are also climbing, analysts found.

Sparkling water is up 4.7%, while wine and beer crept up about 2%. Sodas will cost more, too. Wells Fargo suggests purchasing large-format liter bottles to save money.

As for desserts, Wells Fargo said prices for prepared baked goods saw little change (1.5% higher) and the cost of a 1.5-quart of ice cream rose less than 1%.

Boom or bust?

The report comes as the U.S. continues to face inflationary pressures and lingering supply chain issues. Additionally, the country is bracing for the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports set to take effect July 9.

Given the climate, many Americans may opt out of the upcoming holiday, a recent survey found.

After polling 1,000 adults across the U.S., free coupon finder website Coupon Follow reported that 1-in-3 respondents will not celebrate this year. Besides rising costs, many cited a lack of patriotism or feeling culturally disconnected as reasons for foregoing the Fourth of July. Less than 40% said they’re going to a fireworks display and about 30% will host a barbecue, the survey said.

With inflation tightening budgets and emotional ties to the holiday shifting, traditions like fireworks, barbecues and patriotic décor are no longer a given.
– Coupon Follow survey

Participants who say they’ll put on festivities also expect to rely more heavily on coupons, bulk buys and DIY decorations to pull this year’s gathering together. The average American expects to spend about $500 – which includes $200 on travel, $100 on fireworks, $80 on food, $50 on drinks and $40 on decorations.

“With inflation tightening budgets and emotional ties to the holiday shifting, traditions like fireworks, barbecues and patriotic décor are no longer a given,” the survey said. “ … From spending less on fireworks to choosing not to travel, people are adjusting their plans in practical ways. Still, the desire to enjoy summer and connect with others remains strong, even if it looks a little different this time around.”

At Stew Leonard’s stores across New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, the farm fresh grocery chain’s CEO, Stew Leonard Jr., expects the 10 biggest sellers for the holiday will be:

• Hamburgers
• Hot dogs
• Propane
• Corn
• Picnic salads
• Cherries
• Watermelon
• Lobster rolls
• Apple pie
• American cheese

Tariff talk

As for the impact of tariffs on grocery costs, Leonard wrote in a recent newsletter that the family-run company is trying to hold the price of several imported goods – such as New Zealand lamb, Central American tropical fruit and Italian marinara sauce – by splitting duties.

After switching from suppliers based in Chile to ones in the U.S., Stew Leonard’s is able to keep prices steady – or decreased – on products like grapes, cherries and melons. There’s also been no increase on Mexican avocados or Canadian salmon, since those exports are protected under the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement, he said.

Leonard also noted that beef remains in high demand and low supply. He added that he expects it’ll take “a few years to grow cattle.” He also said that the egg supply is “up again post-Avian Flu” and prices are returning to normal.

Looking ahead, Leonard is eager to see if the tariffs will prompt a consumer switch from European wines to ones made in the U.S. He’s also interested in whether Christmas trees from Canada will be tariffed.

“Overall, this is uncharted territory. A lot is going on in the food industry. A few things can happen; an abundance of supply can decrease prices. Local produce – including blueberries, squash and corn – is coming online. California and Florida crops are available — grapes, cherries, melons,” Leonard shared.

“Tariffs will start kicking in. When? Will more trade deals be made?” Leonard said, adding, “ … Will retailers lower prices to keep sales up? Our farmers and suppliers don’t want to raise prices. Include Stew’s in that mix, too!”

“How much can our suppliers and importers absorb tariff increases? We’re splitting many tariff increases with our small suppliers, many of whom are family-owned,” he also went on to say.