Businesses’ “wait-and-see” approach in 2025 has ended, replaced by expansion and investment for the new year. 

That’s the overarching findings of Provident Bank‘s annual Economic Outlook Survey, released Jan. 6. 

“This year’s data shows a clear transition from the passive optimism we saw last year to active investment this year,” Provident President and CEO Anthony Labozzetta said in a statement. “Business owners are no longer just hopeful about the future; they are funding it.” 

The Iselin-based financial institution found that: 

• 50% of businesses surveyed believed the U.S. economy will be in a better position this year 
• More than 60% expect their own business to be in better shape in 2026 

Conducted by Pollfish on behalf of Provident Bank, the poll surveyed 1,000 business owners and senior executives in the U.S. working for companies with over $1 million in annual revenue. 

Key findings include:  

• 70% of businesses plan to increase capital expenditures in 2026, up from 68% last year 
  • Additionally, 19% of respondents are planning a “significant increase” in spending this year vs. 11% in 2025 
• 44% of Generation Z owners expect their business to be in “much better shape” this year, compared with 14.5% of baby boomers 
• 57% of businesses plan to increase hiring, up from 53% last year 
  • Additionally, 17% of owners are planning a “significant increase” in staff, compared with 8% last year 
• 58% of businesses are either already using AI or plan to adopt AI tools in 2026 vs. 41% last year

“We are seeing an uptick in plans for capital expenditures, hiring, and technology adoption, signaling that companies are positioning themselves to accelerate in 2026,” Labozzetta added.

Provident Bank’s findings mirror another recent outlook survey conducted by Citizens Bank, released Jan. 7. That poll found that 86% of middle-market and 64% of small-business respondents expect their revenue to increase in the beginning of the year.

Challenges remain 

Once again, the top concern for business leaders is inflation, although that dropped to 49% this year vs. 60% of respondents who noted that concern in 2025. Additionally, 37% of respondents said political and policy uncertainty was a key challenge, up from 29% in 2025.  

When it comes to businesses’ response to tariffs:

• 45.3% have passed along all or a portion of related price increases to customers
• 28.9% absorbed those costs
• 9.8% shared those increases with suppliers
• 16% have not been affected at all by tariffs

As for their readiness for a fraud attack:

• 75.9% said they’re fully or mostly prepared
• 18.6% are somewhat prepared
• 4.6% are minimally at the ready
• 0.9% aren’t prepared at all