Emerson poll shows razor-thin margin in NJ governor race

Matthew Fazelpoor//October 30, 2025//

Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli (left) and Democratic hopeful Mikie Sherrill (right) at the second and final gubernatorial debate, which took place Oct. 8, 2025, at the New Brunswick Performing Arts Center. - MATTHEW FAZELPOOR/NJBIZ

Matthew Fazelpoor//October 30, 2025//

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Just ahead of Election Day, the final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll is out, finding a very tight New Jersey gubernatorial race between candidates Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

The survey of 1,000 New Jersey very likely voters/those who have already voted took place Oct. 25–28 (margin of error +/- 3 points). It shows Sherrill with 49% support and Ciattarelli with 48% support, and just 2% undecided.

These findings echo the previous Emerson poll in terms how close the race is, which in September had support for Sherrill and Ciattarelli at 43% each, with 11% undecided.

In this latest survey, when the undecideds’ support is accounted for, support for Sherrill increases to 50% while Ciattarelli stays at 48%.

As NJBIZ has reported, the polls have shown a narrowing race down the stretch – with several results also showing Sherrill up anywhere from five to nine points.

The new poll also gives insight to the gender divide in this race.

“Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherrill’s lead among women grew by eight points.”