Rutgers-Eagleton is out with a new poll Thursday morning on the New Jersey gubernatorial race that shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by nine points, 44% to 35%.

“As summer winds down and the campaigns enter the final months, the race for governor tightened,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

The poll surveyed 1,650 likely voters between July 31 and Aug. 11.

Key things to know

• In that topline number:
  • 3% said they would vote for neither or someone else
  • 17% unsure
• When leaners are included (respondents who first declined to choose but selected a candidate on a follow-up prompt):
  • 47% Sherrill
  • 37% Ciattarelli
  • 3% neither or someone else
  • 12% undecided
• 85% of Democrats say they will vote for Sherrill
• 81% of Republicans back Ciattarelli
• Independents are pretty split:
  • 33% Sherrill
  • 32% Ciattarelli
  • 29% unsure
• Among different races:
  • White voters – 44% Ciattarelli 38% Sherrill
  • Black voters –69% Sherrill, 4% Ciattarelli
  • Hispanic voters – 56% Sherrill, 22% Ciattarelli
  • Asian voters – 47% Sherrill, 18% Ciattarelli
  • However, nearly 1-in-5 Black and Hispanic voters and one-third of Asian voters remain uncertain
• By age:
  • 18–34 – 48% Sherrill 21% Ciattarelli
  • 35–49 – 47% Sherrill 29% Ciattarelli
  • 50–64 – 41% Ciattarelli 36% Sherrill
  • 65+ – 48% Sherrill 38% Ciattarelli

The poll also looks at how things breaking along gender, socioeconomics, and geography. The full poll results are available here.

Independents day

“Sherrill still has the edge, but the important thing to take away here is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds,” said Koning.

She also noted the split among independents, describing it as a key voting bloc here in the state.

“Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November,” said Koning. “Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout.”

This poll is notable, as the first Rutgers-Eagleton poll for the general – back in July – showed a 20-point lead for Sherrill, which sent shockwaves throughout the state. However, other polls since that have shown a single-digit race – so this latest one is in line with that trend. And to Koning’s point, shows a tightening race as the campaign hits this critical stretch.

“We are also at a turning point in New Jersey politics,” said Koning. “Likely voters are always an unknown population, but especially given today’s political climate, shifting turnout dynamics in the state, and the race’s history-making potential, we simply do not know who will definitively turn out come Election Day.

“The only thing for certain is that all eyes are on New Jersey this cycle.”