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The basics:

• Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 51% to 31% among New Jersey adults
• 52% of voters say Trump a major factor in their decision
• Sherrill favored to handle top issues like health care, education
• 78% of respondents say they definitely plan to vote in November

Fresh off the primary elections, Rutgers’ Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling is out today with its first poll examining the November gubernatorial race between Jack Ciattarelli (R) and Mikie Sherrill (D).

The poll, conducted from June 13–16, surveyed 621 New Jersey adults.

At the topline, Rutgers-Eagleton found that 51% of respondents said they would vote for Sherrill if the election were held today – versus 31% for Ciattarelli; while 5% say neither or someone else, and 13% are unsure.

“Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are in the moment – not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

Key findings in the poll:

• Support including leaners:
  • 56% Sherrill
  • 35% Ciattarelli
  • 3% neither or someone else
  • 6% uncertain
• Trump factor:
  • 52% say Trump is a major factor in their vote
  • 18% said he is a minor one
  • 30% say no factor at all
• Enthusiasm:
  • 78% of Sherrill voters are very (30%) or somewhat (48%) enthusiastic about her
  • 80% are very (29%) or somewhat (51%) enthusiastic about Ciattarelli
• Voting:
  • 78% say they will definitely vote – versus 15% who say they will probably vote
• Who would better handle top issues:
  • Taxes – 39% Sherrill, 34% Ciattarelli, 14% neither, 14% unsure
  • Cost of living and affordability – 45% Sherrill, 29% Ciattarelli, 13% neither, 13% unsure
  • Economy and jobs – 42% Sherrill, 33% Ciattarelli, 25% neither or unsure
  • State budget and government spending – 42% Sherrill, 32% Ciattarelli, 25% neither or unsure
  • Health care – 51% Sherrill, 24% Ciattarelli 
  • Education and schools – 50% Sherrill, 24% Ciattarelli 
  • Transportation and infrastructure – 45% Sherrill, 29% Ciattarelli
  • Crime and safety – 39% Sherrill, 37% Ciattarelli

Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are in the moment – not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now.”
— Ashley Koning, Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling

• Name recognition/favorability:
  • Sherrill
    • 50% favorable (up 30 points from April poll)
    • 21% unfavorable (up seven points)
    • 17% no opinion (down five points)
    • 12% don’t know who she is (down 32 points)
  • Ciattarelli
    • 33% favorable (up 15 points)
    • 42% unfavorable (up 18 points)
    • 15% no opinion (down 11 points)
    • 9% don’t know who he is (down 23 points)
• Full poll results are available here

Trump and voter turnout

On the Trump factor in the race, Koning said his influence appears – at this point – to be more of a benefit to Sherrill.

“Given key groups more likely to support her are also more likely to claim the president is a factor in their vote choice, while those more support of Ciattarelli do not,” she explained. “While Trump’s endorsement may have helped in the primaries, these numbers are an early sign that the endorsement may play differently when it comes to the general.”

Koning noted that a lot can happen between now and November – as this race ratchets up post-primary throughout the summer and fall.

“And we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months,” she said. “We only need to look back to 2021 to see how much a race can change throughout a cycle. Add to this an intense national political landscape that will, once again, surely play a role in the governor’s race here at home.

“Come November, what will matter is who actually turns out to vote.”