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The basics:

• Jack Ciattarelli leads GOP primary with 42% support
• No clear Democratic frontrunner
• Voter turnout expected to be low, typical of NJ primaries

With just weeks to go until the June 10 gubernatorial primary, Rutgers-Eagleton is out with a new poll Friday about the race.

The statewide survey engaged 1,058 adults from April 1 to April 10 (+/- 4.1%)

The results show a stark divide on the state of play in each party’s race to choose a general election candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy.

“We currently have a tale of two primaries,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

Key takeaways include:

Republican race

• 42% of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents support Jack Ciattarelli
• 12% Bill Spadea
• 4% Jon Bramnick
• 3% Justin Barbera
• 0% Mario Kranjac
• 4% prefer none of the candidates

When asked about second choice, 16% said Spadea; 12% Bramnick and 12% Ciattarelli.

On a presidential endorsement for the GOP race

• 46% said that would make them more likely to vote for a candidate
• 46% said it would have no effect
• 7% say it would make them less likely to vote for the endorsed candidate

Republican favorability

• Ciattarelli – 18% favorable, 24% unfavorable, 26% no opinion, 32% still do not know him
• Spadea – 8% favorable, 18% unfavorable, 24% no opinion, 51% still do not know who he is
• Bramnick – 6% favorable, 8% unfavorable, 21% no opinion, 65% still do not know who he is

Democratic race

• 17% of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents support Mikie Sherrill
• 12% Steve Fulop
• 10% Sean Spiller
• 9% Josh Gottheimer
• 9% Ras Baraka
• 7% Steve Sweeney
• 4% prefer none of the candidates

When asked about second choice, 16% Gottheimer; 15% Sherrill; 13% Baraka; 12% Spiller; 11% Fulop and 6% Sweeney.

Democratic favorability:

• Sherrill – 20% favorable, 14% unfavorable, 22% no opinion, 44% don’t know who she is
• Gottheimer – 18% favorable, 19% unfavorable, 25% no opinion, 38% don’t know who he is
• Baraka – 15% favorable, 16% unfavorable, 24% no opinion, 46% don’t know who he is
• Spiller – 14% favorable, 17% unfavorable, 26% no opinion, 42% don’t know who he is
• Sweeney – 13% favorable, 21% unfavorable, 33% no opinion, 34% don’t know who he is
• Fulop – 12% favorable, 12% unfavorable, 30% no opinion, 46% don’t know who he is

On voting in the primary election:

• 55% very likely
• 22% somewhat likely
• 11% not very likely
• 9% not likely at all

Nearly one-third of each partisan group is still not sure about which candidate they prefer.

“On the Republican side, a leading candidate is coming into focus, while on the Democratic side, there is no clear frontrunner, given that most of the Democratic candidates are within striking distance of one another,” said Koning.

She pointed out that while the candidates have made some progress since the fall about increasing name recognition, they have not made noticeable gains in favorability.

“Though not necessarily unusual at this stage in the game, candidates on both sides of the aisle still lack name recognition from a notable number of voters, and no candidate on either side of the aisle is viewed favorably by more than 1-in-5 voters,” said Koning.

Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP, noted that New Jersey has a history of low turnout primaries – so the kind of turnout mentioned above is unlikely.

“Turnout is generally much lower in off-cycle, off-year, and primary elections,” said Roman. “This June will be about who candidates get to turn out and how many.”