The basics:

• FDU poll shows Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 45% to 37%
• Support shifts based on local vs. national issue framing
• Debate sponsors, key voter groups and turnout trends detailed

The latest gubernatorial poll shows a tightening race between the two New Jersey candidates.

FDU Poll conducted the survey between July 17–23, to gauge feelings about the race from 806 likely voters in the state. Respondents favored Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill in the November election to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy over Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a margin of 45% to 37%. Undecided represented 16%.

That represents a much slimmer margin than the first post-primary poll. Released by Rutgers-Eagleton earlier this month, that feedback from 621 New Jersey adults had Sherrill at 51% and Ciattarelli at 31%, with 5% going for neither or someone else, and 13% unsure.

The party line

Dan Cassino, FDU Poll executive director and a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, noted that voters of both parties have largely lined up behind their candidates. He noted 87% of Democrats saying they will vote for Sherrill and 86% of Republicans back Jack.

“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” said Cassino. “While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.”

The poll also tried an experiment. After asking respondents which candidate they would support, it then randomly assigned them a series of questions about local issues, such as energy and NJ Transit, or about national issues, like President Donald Trump or immigration policies. The survey then asked respondents about their preference in the race.

• On local issue questions, preferences did not change for Republican and Democrats. However, support increased for Ciattarelli by seven points
• On national issue questions, support from independents for Ciattarelli decreased by 4 points. Meanwhile, it crystallized support among Republicans. The poll found 3% moving from “probable” to “definite” Ciattarelli supporters
• Neither variable changed Sherrill’s support significantly
• FDU notes that any changes to the second governor’s race query were not included in the overall topline results
• FDU also says that none of these local/national questions mentioned the governor’s race – or stances the candidates took

Local booster

“There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues, and trying not to talk about President Trump,” said Cassino. “The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.”

The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.
— Dan Cassino, executive director, FDU Poll

Cassino said that the Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump.

“He needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t what’s happening in Washington,” said Cassino. “For Sherrill, on the other hand, there’s no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes.

Other key findings:

• Among white voters: Sherrill 43% – Ciattarelli 42%
• Among Black voters: Sherrill 58% – Ciattarelli 20%
• Among Hispanic or Latino/a voters: Sherrill 41% – Ciattarelli 27% – 27% undecided
• Among voters 30 and under: Sherrill 46% – Ciattarelli 24%
• Among voters 45 to 64: Sherrill 41% – Ciattarelli 40%
• Among voters 65 and older: Sherrill 46% – Ciattarelli 39%

The full poll results are available here.

Time to shine

These latest poll results come on the heels of the recent announcements of the candidates’ lieutenant governor/running mates, which NJBIZ reported on here and here.

The New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) also announced the sponsors for each of the upcoming debates July 29, which include:

• First gubernatorial debate hosted at Rider University by New Jersey Globe/On New Jersey/Rider
• Second gubernatorial debate set for New Brunswick Performing Arts Center, hosted by WABC-TV New York/WPVI-TV Philadelphia/Rutgers Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
• Lieutenant governor candidate debate hosted by PIX11/WPIX TV/PHIL17/NJ1015.com/NewsNation.com/TheHill.com and taking place at Kean University

The debates can take place no earlier than Sept. 16 – and no later than Oct. 24.

More details to come on the dates of those debates.