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The basics:

• Gas prices in New Jersey jumped 28 cents in a week to $3.197 per gallon
• National gasoline average climbed to $3.306 as oil supply concerns grow
• Tensions near Strait of Hormuz threaten about 20% of global oil shipments
• Analysts warn US gas prices could rise to $3.50–$3.70 per gallon soon

Fuel prices across the United States – and here in the Garden State – are climbing sharply as the war in Iran and chaos in the Middle East disrupt global oil markets and threaten one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.

Writing on Substack today, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, detailed the early impacts of the conflict on fuel markets. De Haan also outlined trends he expects to shape prices in the coming weeks.

“Fuel prices across the United States are continuing to surge as the global oil market reacts to escalating disruptions tied to the ongoing crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz,” he wrote.

Rising rates

National fuel averages rose rapidly over the past week as supply concerns intensify. The national average price of gasoline reached $3.306 per gallon as of Friday morning, up 32.4 cents from $2.982 a week earlier. It marks the highest level since Aug. 31, 2024.

Diesel prices have climbed even more dramatically, to $4.264 per gallon nationally. It represents a 51.2-cent increase from $3.752 a week ago — and the highest level since Nov. 21, 2023.

Meanwhile, crude oil continues to climb, as well. West Texas Intermediate rose $5.49 to $86.50 per barrel as markets grapple with the prospect that a significant portion of global supply cannot reach buyers.

At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway is responsible for moving roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, or about one-fifth of the world’s supply.

The strait has not formally closed; however, military tensions, attacks and rising insurance risks have led many tanker operators to avoid the region entirely. The bypass has effectively stranded millions of barrels that would normally reach global markets. Even if the corridor eventually reopens, analysts warn that each additional day of disruption compounds the problem.

Strait of Hormuz:

What’ll cost to fill up in NJ?

New Jersey is already feeling the impacts.

As of 9:55 a.m. March 6, the state’s average price for regular gasoline stood at $3.197 per gallon. It represents an increase of 28.2 cents from last week’s average ($2.915) and 33.7 cents higher than a month ago.

De Haan said additional price pressure could arrive in the coming weeks.

“Given current market conditions, the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist,” he explained. “Seasonal factors could add additional pressure later this month as another phase of the transition to summer gasoline blends begins in mid-March.”

Given current market conditions, the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist.
– Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis, GasBuddy

Earlier in the week, hope emerged that price increases might begin slowing by the weekend. That outlook has now changed. As oil prices continue to climb, and with shipping through the Strait still disrupted, fuel prices will likely keep rising in the short-term.

De Haan closed his Substack post, “Ultimately, stabilizing oil and fuel prices depends on restoring confidence that tankers can once again safely transit the Strait of Hormuz. Markets do not necessarily need a perfect geopolitical resolution — but they do need assurance that the world’s most important oil shipping lane is open and secure.

“Until that confidence returns, oil prices will likely remain elevated and fuel prices could continue climbing across the United States.”