As the Memorial Day holiday weekend gets into full swing, AAA projects that 43.8 million people will travel more than 50 miles or more during the unofficial start of summer.

That figure marks a 4% increase over last year, approaching 2005’s record 44 million travelers over MDW.

“We haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. “We’re projecting an additional 1 million travelers this holiday weekend compared to 2019, which not only means we’re exceeding pre-pandemic levels but also signals a very busy summer travel season ahead.”

AAA projects a record number of road trips as well.

The national member association and service organization expects 38.4 million people to travel by car over the holiday weekend. That’s the highest since AAA began tracking in 2000, up 4% versus last year, and by nearly 2% over pre-pandemic 2019.

Additionally, AAA expects 3.51 million air travelers — an increase of nearly 5% over last year and 9% versus 2019. The figure is near the 2005 level, when 3.64 million flew for the holiday. Nearly 2 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, such as buses, cruises and trains. That’s an increase of more than 5% compared to last year.

“This category took the biggest hit during the pandemic with fewer people taking public transportation or not cruising at all,” said Twidale. “Now – five years later – we’re back to 2019 numbers. Travel demand has been soaring, and long holiday weekends create the perfect winds for getaways.”

Hitting the road

For those driving, gas prices in New Jersey Wednesday were an average of nearly $3.51 per gallon (national average around $3.60 per gallon). The price is up around 12 cents from last year, according to GasBuddy, which released its 2024 Summer Travel Survey and forecast for Memorial Day travel this week.

That forecast revealed a near-record number of Americans plan to road trip this summer. Meanwhile, GasBuddy estimates the national average will hold in the mid-$3 per gallon range for much of the summer. Additionally it expects potentially tens of thousands of stations to fall below that figure over the next few months.

Between Memorial Day and Labor Day, GasBuddy forecasts a national gas price average of $3.58 per gallon.

Key findings in the forecast and survey include:

• 76% of Americans plan to take a road trip between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends
  Up 18% from 2023, with an average of two road trips planned per traveler
• Memorial Day is the most popular major travel holiday, with 60% planning a road trip.
  Followed by Fourth of July (45%) and Labor Day (34%)
• 63% of respondents cite cost as the top consideration when planning trips
  46% say high gas costs impacted their itineraries, but just 15% are thinking about an EV to alleviate fuel costs

“It looks like it’ll be a busy start to the summer driving season, and while Americans gripe about the cost of gasoline, it doesn’t seem that too many are going to be deterred from hitting the road. Great news for those who are planning to travel: motorists are likely to see more stations lowering prices to $2.99 per gallon or less as the summer wears on, and refiners ramp up output after finishing maintenance,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum and analysis at GasBuddy. “Hurricane season is a major wildcard for those hitting the road this summer, but absent a major storm in the Gulf, gas prices should not be much of a hindrance for those taking a road trip.”

Adjust expectations

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey held a press conference Wednesday announcing it also expects a record number of travelers in the region.

PANYNJ expects 6.4 million people to use its airports, bridges and tunnels during the holiday weekend — as well as longer wait times at airports.

[E]xpect absolutely record levels of travel, whatever mode of transportation you plan to take.

“We’re here this morning to deliver a very straightforward and simple message to people who plan to travel this holiday weekend – expect absolutely record levels of travel, whatever mode of transportation you plan to take,” said Port Authority Executive Director Rick Cotton at that presser, held at the World Trade Center PATH station. “This is truly the beginning of the busy summer peak travel, and we expect record-setting numbers of travelers. We expect a record high of 4.2 million vehicles to go across our Hudson River crossings, and we expect 2.2 million travelers to pass through our airports over this holiday weekend – from Thursday through Tuesday.”

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Because of that, Cotton stressed travelers should leave extra time, especially at the airports.

“We are doing everything we possibly can – at all of our facilities to assure that these record volumes of passengers move through them as easily as possible,” said Cotton. “We have stopped all non-emergency construction at all of our Hudson River crossings. We will be providing enhanced staff at all of our facilities – from PATH stations to the crossings to the airports.”

On PATH, Cotton highlighted that the TAPP system is now active at all stations in New Jersey and New York. The rollout, as NJBIZ reported earlier, comes just in time to speed things up for the holiday weekend rush.

“So, that is our message with respect to the weekend – record traffic, record travel,” said Cotton. “Please take account of that as you make your travel plans.”